A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
